AFTER a semblance of tranquility alongside India-Pakistan border in Jammu and Kashmir, militancy-related violence has witnessed a spike within the Valley during the last six weeks, together with a rise within the participation of overseas terrorists in assaults on safety forces.
In 2021, 86 militants have been killed throughout J&Ok. In June and July alone, 36 militants or 45 per cent have been killed in 16 encounters. July has been significantly lively, witnessing 10 encounters in 20 days, wherein 20 militants have been killed, of which 4 are suspected to be from Pakistan.
In all this 12 months, the safety forces have been engaged in 36 operations, and of the 86 killed, 80 have been killed in Kashmir and 6 in Jammu. Additionally half the militants killed have been from LeT.
In these operations, 15 safety personnel and 19 civilians misplaced their lives this 12 months in militancy-related incidents.
Notably, the information obtained from authorities sources exhibits overseas terrorists (from Pakistan) weren’t concerned in any encounter with safety forces till April. Between April and June, 4 overseas terrorists have been killed in encounters with terrorists. In July, one other 4 FTs have been killed, taking their depend to eight.
Spike not anticipated
The altering dynamics of militancy in Kashmir coincides with shifting sands within the area’s geopolitics, significantly Pakistan’s personal significance and developments in Afghanistan. It’s assumed that uncertainties in Afghanistan early this 12 months and strain from FATF had pressured Pakistan to return to the negotiating desk. These pressures have eased now.
India and Pakistan had determined to honour the ceasefire after the DGMOs of the 2 international locations met and issued a joint assertion on February 25. This was seen as a big thaw within the relations between the 2 international locations and was anticipated to translate right into a drop in infiltration and terrorist actions in Kashmir.
The peace inside the Valley may, nonetheless, maintain for simply a few months. Sources mentioned 4 infiltration makes an attempt have been made within the final week; whereas one was foiled, three succeeded and as many as 20 terrorists are learnt to have entered Kashmir.
By way of recruitment, until July 15 this 12 months, 69 people joined the militant ranks in contrast with 85 within the corresponding interval final 12 months. A lot of the recruitment has been from the three South Kashmir districts of Kulgam, Shopian, and Pulwama. Total, in 2020, 174 people turned militants in contrast with 143 in 2019.
When contacted, Director Normal of Police, Jammu and Kashmir, Dilbag Singh mentioned technological interventions have helped curb recruitment within the Valley in addition to intensification on counter-terrorism operations regardless of Covid-19 pandemic. “We intercepted a number of individuals earlier than they might be a part of any terror outfits… In lots of circumstances, dad and mom have come to hunt assist in discovering boys which have gone lacking. So public belief has elevated,” he mentioned.
The J&Ok Police information additionally exhibits that militancy-related incidents – direct or grenade assaults – are down from 120 within the first six months of 2020 to 84 this 12 months. Additional, whereas J&Ok had recorded 937 incidents of ceasefire violation in 2020, this 12 months solely 95 incidents have been recorded, virtually all from earlier than the February 25 settlement.
In accordance with intelligence studies, there are over 200 terrorists lively within the Valley with 40 per cent of them having infiltrated from Pakistan. “We expect a rise in direct involvement of FTs in assaults within the close to future,” the officer mentioned.
A senior safety institution officer mentioned a lot of this needed to do with Pakistan’s altering significance within the area’s geopolitics. “Earlier, Pakistan’s palms have been pressured partially because of the strain from the Monetary Motion Job Power (FATF) which has continued to maintain it within the Gray Listing. Nonetheless, with developments in Afghanistan the place Taliban is ready to take management of the nation, Pakistan is being seen as a mandatory ally to have for each the Western and regional powers. The FATF strain too has diminished significantly,” the officer mentioned.
In 2020, a complete of 225 militants have been killed by safety forces working in J&Ok. In the middle of 103 operations – 90 in Kashmir and 13 in Jammu – 207 militants have been killed within the Valley whereas 18 within the Jammu area. Nonetheless, the variety of J&Ok police officers killed this 12 months is up. In contrast with 15 in 2020, ten policemen have been killed this 12 months together with a sub-inspector, a constable and SPOs.